Dr. Susan MacManus, Kathy Dent Discuss Politics + Media

USF Professor and political analyst extraordinaire Dr. Susan MacManusbrought her crystal ball to the Hyatt Regency Sarasota only weeks before America chooses its next leader.

MacManus was one of two speakers, which also included Sarasota County Supervisor of Elections Kathy Dent at The Greater Sarasota Chamber of Commerce Chamber U’s Politics, Women, Media & Business luncheon. An ominous groan could be heard when MacManus ended on a comical note.

She shared an element of what she recently wrote in a piece for the New England Journal of Political Science, citing a collision course for our state at the hand of lawsuits.

“Florida may be a contested state, and that is the last thing that Kathy Dent will want—a CNN van parked in front of her house.”

Taking the crowd from ballroom to classroom, MacManus educates the audience about the connection between money and media. She cites the significance of the Interstate 4 corridor, which alone consists of 10 media markets as well as 26 percent of Florida’s registered voters (including Sarasota County) as part of the Tampa Bay area.

The Tampa Bay media market is costing each political party 10 times more to flood the airwaves with the negative messages. She also couples the 17 percent of registered voters in the Orlando market, which totals a whopping 43 percent of Florida’s registered voters. Also, the state’s two new electoral votes make Florida the third most powerful influence in this year’s presidential election, explaining the more than $120 million spent on advertising since March.

Super PACs got a dishonorable mention, uniting to produce 85 percent of the daily negative ads. MacManus points out their detriment to both political parties. Fear is internalized by each party as the huge amounts of money spent on negative campaigning may ultimately cause viewers to lose confidence in either candidate, leaving voters unenthused about voting at all in the presidential election.

According to MacManus, women voters constitute 53 percent of Florida’s voters. They are a divided group, she says. Their divide consisting mainly of party affiliation, religiosity, and the greatest voting predictor—marital status.

“Married women are more likely to vote for Romney than unmarried women,” MacManus says. She also predicts an overemphasis on the Latino vote in Miami, explaining that black voters are equal in number and more likely to go to the polls in November to vote for Obama.

Finally, MacManus tells us there are two campaigns for each candidate. She tells us we can expect many of young people and female faces in TV ads after early voting. These are the voters that are more likely to be among a special group who consist of the least number of undecided votes in America’s history.

This year, MacManus maintains party affiliation will still be the strongest predictor in the outcome of the presidential election.